Markets

Stock Market Returns Over Different Time Periods (1872-2018)

Published

5 years ago

March 11, 2019

Jeff Desjardins

Putting hard-earned money in the stock market can make some people nervous.

It’s well known that a correction can occur at any time, and the fear of market crashes can make even the most seasoned investors to make questionable decisions.

While it’s true that putting your money on the line is never easy, the historical record of the stock market is virtually irrefutable: U.S. markets have consistently performed over long holding periods, even going back to the 19th century.

Market Performance (1872-2018)

Today’s animation comes to us from The Measure of a Plan, and it shows the performance of the U.S. market over different rolling time horizons using annualized returns.

Note: The animation uses real total returns from the S&P Composite Index from 1872 to 1957, and then the S&P 500 Index from 1957 onwards. Data has been adjusted for reinvestment of dividends as well as inflation.

Animation: Stock Market Returns Over Different Time Periods (1872-2018)

Using just one-year intervals of time, the market can be a crapshoot. Unfortunately, if you were to just choose a one-year period at random, there would be a significant chance of losing money.

However, as the timeframes get longer – the animation goes to 5-year, 10-year, and then 20-year rolling periods – the frequency of losses rapidly decreases. By the time you get to the 20-year windows, there isn’t a single instance in which the market had a negative return.

Why Time Matters

Over 146 years of data, the chance of seeing negative returns for any given year is about 31%.

That fact in itself is quite alarming, but even more important to note is the distribution of returns in those down years. As you can see in the following chart also from The Measure of a Plan, it’s not uncommon for a down year to skew in the high negatives, just as it did during the crisis of 2008:

1 year stock market return distributions

According to the data, there have been 10 individual years where the market has lost upwards of 20% – and while those off years are greatly outnumbered by the years with positive returns, it makes it clear that timeframe matters.

Past performance obviously doesn’t guarantee future results, but the historical track record in this case is quite robust.

Long-term investors can see that as long as their time horizon is measured in the decades, you can take the odds of making money in the stock market to the bank.

Related Topics:investing stock market long term

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Markets

The European Stock Market: Attractive Valuations Offer Opportunities

On average, the European stock market has valuations that are nearly 50% lower than U.S. valuations. But how can you access the market?

Graphics & Design

Alejandra Dander

An infographic showing that compared to North American and Asian stocks, the European stock market has lower or comparable valuations and low-to-moderate correlation.

European Stock Market: Attractive Valuations Offer Opportunities

Europe is known for some established brands, from L’Oréal to Louis Vuitton. However, the European stock market offers additional opportunities that may be lesser known.

The above infographic, sponsored by STOXX, outlines why investors may want to consider European stocks.

Attractive Valuations

Compared to most North American and Asian markets, European stocks offer lower or comparable valuations.

Index	Price-to-Earnings Ratio	Price-to-Book Ratio
EURO STOXX 50	14.9	2.2
STOXX Europe 600	14.4	2
U.S.	25.9	4.7
Canada	16.1	1.8
Japan	15.4	1.6
Asia Pacific ex. China	17.1	1.8

Data as of February 29, 2024. See graphic for full index names. Ratios based on trailing 12 month financials. The price to earnings ratio excludes companies with negative earnings.

On average, European valuations are nearly 50% lower than U.S. valuations, potentially offering an affordable entry point for investors.

Research also shows that lower price ratios have historically led to higher long-term returns.

Market Movements Not Closely Connected

Over the last decade, the European stock market had low-to-moderate correlation with North American and Asian equities.

The below chart shows correlations from February 2014 to February 2024. A value closer to zero indicates low correlation, while a value of one would indicate that two regions are moving in perfect unison.

	EURO STOXX 50	STOXX EUROPE 600	U.S.	Canada	Japan	Asia Pacific ex. China
EURO STOXX 50	1.00	0.97	0.55	0.67	0.24	0.43
STOXX EUROPE 600		1.00	0.56	0.71	0.28	0.48
U.S.			1.00	0.73	0.12	0.25
Canada				1.00	0.22	0.40
Japan					1.00	0.88
Asia Pacific ex. China						1.00

Data is based on daily USD returns.

European equities had relatively independent market movements from North American and Asian markets. One contributing factor could be the differing sector weights in each market. For instance, technology makes up a quarter of the U.S. market, but health care and industrials dominate the broader European market.

Ultimately, European equities can enhance portfolio diversification and have the potential to mitigate risk for investors.

Tracking the Market

For investors interested in European equities, STOXX offers a variety of flagship indices:

Index	Description	Market Cap
STOXX Europe 600	Pan-regional, broad market	€10.5T
STOXX Developed Europe	Pan-regional, broad-market	€9.9T
STOXX Europe 600 ESG-X	Pan-regional, broad market, sustainability focus	€9.7T
STOXX Europe 50	Pan-regional, blue-chip	€5.1T
EURO STOXX 50	Eurozone, blue-chip	€3.5T

Data is as of February 29, 2024. Market cap is free float, which represents the shares that are readily available for public trading on stock exchanges.

The EURO STOXX 50 tracks the Eurozone’s biggest and most traded companies. It also underlies one of the world’s largest ranges of ETFs and mutual funds. As of November 2023, there were €27.3 billion in ETFs and €23.5B in mutual fund assets under management tracking the index.

“For the past 25 years, the EURO STOXX 50 has served as an accurate, reliable and tradable representation of the Eurozone equity market.”
— Axel Lomholt, General Manager at STOXX

Partnering with STOXX to Track the European Stock Market

Are you interested in European equities? STOXX can be a valuable partner:

Comprehensive, liquid and investable ecosystem
European heritage, global reach
Highly sophisticated customization capabilities
Open architecture approach to using data
Close partnerships with clients
Part of ISS STOXX and Deutsche Börse Group

With a full suite of indices, STOXX can help you benchmark against the European stock market.

Learn how STOXX’s European indices offer liquid and effective market access.

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