Pundits, Facts and the Future

Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Group, is one of the smartest guys I know. Each quarter, he sends out a letter to investors filled with sharp insights and observations. I find all of his letters to be worthwhile, but this quarter he played right to my confirmation bias in his discussion about experts. Here are the key concepts:

1. Pundits often fail to understand people and their views: We understand the people who are most similar to us much better than we understand “the other.” The news media tend to be college-educated, coastal, urban dwellers. Is it any surprise they are not in tune with the folks who live in the heartland, may not have gone to college and work on farms or in small towns? The literary arts are by definition an intellectual pursuit, and you will be hard-pressed to recall a pundit who lives in the Midwest and outside of the coastal metro areas.